Monday, July 20, 2009

Drug Study results surprise to the upside, Human Genome (HGSI)soars...

AlphaNinja - Surprising the sell-side community (Wall street research), Human Genome Sciences(HGSI) announced this morning that its clinical trial for lupus drug BENLYSTA has been succesful.

"The BLISS-52 results demonstrated that BENLYSTA has the potential to become the first new approved drug in decades for people living with systemic lupus," said H. Thomas Watkins, President and Chief Executive Officer, HGS. "Given the limited treatment options currently available, patients would benefit greatly from potential new treatments. BENLYSTA is an outstanding example of the type of treatment HGS is working to develop and bring to patients. Assuming positive results in November from our second Phase 3 trial of BENLYSTA, we and GSK plan to submit marketing applications in the United States, Europe and other regions in the first half of 2010."

The stock is up $7 or 225% this morning, as there was rampant skepticism about the outcome of the clinical results. Recent quotes from analysts:

Lazard -->> "We continue to believe the probability that Lymphostat-B succeeds is extremely low."

UBS -->> "We believe significant downside risk exists with the read-out of the BLISS-52 data later this month,"

Barclays -->> "Benlysta likely to fail BLISS studies."

Many others were skeptical as well. It's reasons like this that I stay away from biotech -->> you need to be a courtroom or lab expert to gamble in this area...

Among those celebrating this morning must be Taube Hodson Stonex Partners, as this small holding of theirs looks to be boosting their portfolio by $70million or 5%.

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