Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Beware over-bullish headlines on housing

AlphaNinja - You read the following headline and it sounds awesome:

U.S. Economy: Home Prices Increase by Most Since 2005

While this Case/Shiller housing index July figure has risen 3% off the March lows, it is still down 13% from last July -->> and last July did not have the benefit of the first-time homebuyer's credit.

I'm not trying to be over-pessimistic. But a "decline-in-the-drop," in terms of year over year home sales, does not mean we're out of the woods. Especially when one period is aided by government credits and the previous is not.

The case/shiller numbers, in a (as usual, so artistic) alphaninja chart:


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