Monday, November 16, 2009

American Dairy "Never Can Give Up!" (ADY)

Uhh, that's the "translation" from the company's website. American Dairy (ADY) reported a weak quarter, but that's nothing compared to December guidance, in which they reduce revenue expectations by 51%.

American Dairy produces and sells infant formula, milk and soy products in China. Revenue was up huge, as was "sales and marketing expense" - up 75%, and I'm not too comfortable that this was money well or properly spent.

While 3rd quarter results were not awful (revenue came in slightly below estimates), it's the full year guidance that has shocked investors, sending shares down 21% this morning.

Even though sales guidance is being reduced dramatically, the market remains EXCITING! Yeah I'd say so...

Today, the Company adjusted its full year 2009 revenue guidance. The Company now anticipates that revenue for the full year 2009 will be between $270 million to $290 million, which represents year over year growth of 40% to 50%.

Mr. Chou concluded, "We believe it is prudent to adjust our full year revenue expectation today after reviewing our preliminary October results, combined with recent industry data that suggests that the seasonal strength we typically experience in the fourth quarter may be less than previously expected. Additionally, our fourth quarter comparison is particularly difficult due to the exceptional growth we exhibited last year, in the wake of the melamine crisis. With this in mind, our revised guidance anticipates at least 40% year over year revenue growth, and we remain confident in our leading competitive position based on our unique vertically integrated business model. Our addressable market remains exciting and continues to exhibit strong fundamentals with compelling long term growth opportunities for American Dairy."

So the midpoint guidance of $280million for the full year means that December revenues should come in at about $53million, versus current Wall Street estimates of $108million. That, to be kind, is a DISASTER. Management credibility is shot, and I'd expect shares to continue to be very volatile.

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