Tuesday, November 10, 2009

"DANG!", say the Brocade shareholders (BRCD)

A quick spike in Brocade (BRCD) shares a little bit earlier was due to the company pulling out of a Goldman Sachs conference.

Sometimes these cancellations precede a major announcement, in this case people were thinking the rumored buyout that the company might be seeking. The company quieted speculation, saying the conference appearance was cancelled because their Chief Technology Officer was too ill to travel.

I still think they should wait to sell. As I wrote on October 5th:

"Brocade could potentially do over $300million in Free Cash Flow. That would be about a 10% FCFY (Free Cash Flow Yield) on today's price. Taking a tough stance with an acquirer could lead to a buyout on a 7% FCFY, or about $10.28 per share. I think shareholders would be best served by waiting another 12 months to shop the company. The earnings will be stronger, debt will be lower, and the purchase price would be richer."

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