Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Settle down, people. The MA race might not be that close....

People are in a tizzy, Matt Drudge included, that the Massachusetts senate race to replace Ted Kennedy might be tight.  Were Republican Scott Brown to pull out a victory, he would be the 41st vote against a healthcare bill in the Senate.

From the Boston Herald:

"The most striking thing about the debate was not that the very liberal Democrat and the not-especially-conservative Republican disagreed on the issues. It is that they are both viable candidates in a race too competitive to call. In Massachusetts!

“I don’t know what’s going to happen on Jan. 19th,’’ Coakley said. She wasn’t being coy.Nobodyknows what’s going to happen next week.

When Ted Kennedy died five months ago, who would have guessed that the contest to replace him would be anything but a slam-dunk for the Democrats? Yet there was no slam-dunk on that stage last night, and the race certainly doesn’t feel like a slam-dunk now.

“It’s not the ‘Kennedy Seat,’ ’’ Brown has been reminding Coakley lately. “It’s the people’s seat.’’ Amazing thing is, he could be right."

I don't buy it.  Intrade, where the bets have been pretty accurate in the past, has contracts trading on this race.  Based on current prices, only 16% think Brown will pull this upset off:

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