Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Did the last decade of CAPEX pay off for the Dow?

Below is a look at the 10 year change in capital expenditures for the current 27 non-financial DJIA members (excluded BAC, TRV, JPM, and included AXP as they have significant capital outlays).

For anyone trying to find a golden rule in the data, sorry to to disappoint you.  There's no major correlation between CAPEX and stock price action here, for many reasons.  Some of the biggest boots to capital budgets came from Chevron and Exxon, and they were among the bets performing stocks.  But that is more related to the 700% increase in the underlying commodity rather than the capital spending.

The CAPEX tragedies are the telecoms.  Verizon and AT&T increased spending by $8.3billion and $7billion in 2009 versus 2008, yet their stocks fell 52 and 48% respectively.  Sure, they paid hefty dividends the whole time, but that killed anyone using a "dividend re-investment" program.

Copyright 2010 AlphaNinja

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