Monday, April 12, 2010

A worthy Cramer rant....(ANF, GPS, CIEN)

Worth watching. For all the bearish folks that equate "end-of-the-world" predictions with investment acumen, there's plenty of lazy bear arguments that have absolutely KILLED investors over the past year.

Cramer mentions a few analyst actions that have been truly disastrous, not to celebrate it, but to learn from it.

As for the (largely) arbitrary insanity of analyst targets, consider two different takes on Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) today:

-->> Caris maintained their Average rating on the stock, and drooped their target to $35, for a P/E of 14times NEXT year's expected earnings.

-->> Jeffries, on the other hand, boosted their earnings estimate for 2011 by a full dollar, on the belief that management can hit their 15% operating margin target a year earlier than the rest of Wall Street is expecting. Their price target jumps TWENTY FIVE DOLLARS, from $50 to $75, in the span of a day. There's far too much volatility in a firm's price targets if they can pull an extra $25 in "value" out of a hat. I'm not saying $75 is the wrong price for ANF shares, but the manner in which Jeffries is arriving at those figures makes you wonder....

Cramer's rant, essentially that the continued upward move in the indexes is being driven by institutional investors who missed the last 70%...















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