Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Slight adjustments in the FOMC's 2010/2011 predictions

Earlier today, the FOMC released the meeting minutes from their late April session.

Here are the predictions for GDP growth and the unemployment rate.  I would call these estimates for 2010 unemployment way too low, as people return to the workforce (increasing the denominator) faster than jobs are created...



If you're wondering how much faith to put in FOMC estimates, the answer is not much.  Not that I don't appreciate the effort, but their track record is awful.  The 2010 unemployment rate will come in about double what the FOMC had predicted for this year 24months ago.



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